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Inflation forecasts: 0.9% for 2020 and 1.3% for 2021
05-08-2020 | STATEC

The partial recovery in oil prices over the last few months, which happened faster than expected, leads STATEC to revise its inflation forecasts upwards for 2020 and downwards for 2021. Core inflation also contributes to these revisions: it has held up well so far, particularly supported by price increases in the food industry and certain services. Over the forecast horizon; however, the deteriorating economic outlook should slow it down. The impact of the introduction of a CO2 tax of 20 EUR/ton in 2021 has been simulated, but has not yet been included in the central scenario because certain modalities are not yet known.

Core inflation has broadly maintained its cruising speed from the end of 2019 and stands at 1.7% over a year in July.