NDC 1-26 - Etude 7.4 - Tool for robust forecasting

This study presents a forecasting equation search tool to support macroeconomic forecasting. The tool provides a systematic procedure for generating, evaluating and selecting forecasting equations. One of its key features is the use of historical forecasting accuracy to guide the search for new equations and to identify equations that are stable over time. It also integrates and automatizes various forecasting steps – such as data cleaning, stationarity testing, stability checks, and economic sign restrictions – into a single framework. The tool generates a large set of candidate equations, which are then filtered and ranked based on stability and forecasting performance. The final selection remains the responsibility of the forecaster. The tool thus facilitates fast construction of stable and interpretable short-term forecasting equations. It is intended both to assist less experienced forecasters and to accelerate the workflow of experienced economists when fast re-specification is required.