Economic seminar - STATEC's new long-term economic and demographic scenarios

The economic seminar STATEC's new long-term economic and demographic scenarios took place on July 3rd 2024.

Gabriel Gomes, economic analyst at STATEC, presented the following topic:

STATEC's new long-term economic and demographic scenarios

Demographic projections are a valuable tool for political decision-makers, helping them to plan and implement effective and sustainable public policies. They make it possible to anticipate the country's future needs and ensure long-term prosperity and economic stability.

The determinants of demographic growth in Luxembourg are different from those in most European countries. Thanks to its strong economy and high standard of living, Luxembourg attracts many foreign workers, so net migration has a strong influence on demographic projections (and the economy itself).

Against this backdrop, in 2017 STATEC published a detailed study of Luxembourg's demographic dynamics, taking into account factors such as immigration, birth rates and life expectancy. This seminar presents an extension of this publication. While retaining the same econometric methodology, the definition of certain variables is modified: GDP growth becomes endogenous while productivity is exogenous.   

STATEC's new projections consist of four scenarios based on long-term assumptions about the components of productivity, namely total factor productivity, which describes technical progress, and the investment rate, which defines capital intensity. In 2070, the population of Luxembourg will exceed one million, while annual GDP growth will be between 0.2% and 1.7%, depending on the scenario.

PowerPoint (Pdf, 1.20 Mb)