CPB Discussion Papers
n° 212, June 2012
When is debt sustainable?Jasper Lukkezen, Hugo Rojas-Romagosa
This CPB Discussion Paper proposes indicators to assess government debt sustainability. Sustainable government finances can be achieved via three main channels: fiscal responses, economic growth and financial repression.
The fiscal response provides information on the long-term country specific attitude towards fiscal sustainability and is estimated using Bohn (2008)’s approach. We combine the estimated fiscal response with a stochastic debt simulation and calculate the probability of debt-to-GDP ratios rising above some threshold. This is applied on historical data for seven OECD countries. In particular, the probability of debt-to-GDP ratios rising by more than 20% in the next decade clearly identifies countries that have sustainability concerns: Spain, Portugal and Iceland, from those that do not: US, UK, Netherlands and Belgium.
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n° 211, June 2012
Export decisions of services firms between agglomeration effects and market-entry costs
Henk Kox
The paper tests the role of agglomeration effects on the export decision of services firms. Recent theories on trade with heterogeneous firms predict that export participation goes along with sunk market-entry costs.
Only the more productive firms will be able to overcome these sunk costs. This leads to a process of - ex ante - self selection. These predictions are tested for the services industry, with due account for the possible role of agglomeration effects in large-city areas.
Standard empirical tests of the new trade models consistently find productivity-based ex ante self selection by exporters, and this effect is mostly explained by unobserved sunk entry costs that exporters have to absorb in new foreign markets. Recent research by urban economists (e.g. Combes et al., 2012) suggests, however, that operating in large-city areas also goes along with positive productivity sorting. Ignoring this leads to upwardly biased estimates of the effect of foreign market entry costs. A large set of micro data for establishments in Dutch services is used to investigate this hypothesis.
I find evidence that positive productivity self-selection is based on the combined effects of agglomeration and anticipated market-entry cost for export starters. This effect is strongest in markets with more or less homogeneous products. I also find evidence that the productivity self-selection effect (of exporters compared to non-traders) is stronger in non-urban areas and smaller agglomerations.
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n° 210, May 2012
Dynamic market selection in EU business services
Henk Kox & George van Leeuwen (Statistics Netherlands)
European business services has witnessed about two decades of virtual productivity stagnation. The paper investigates whether this is caused by weak dynamic market selection. The time pattern of scale-related inefficiencies is used as an indicator for the effectiveness of market selection.
We use a DEA method to construct the productivity frontier by sub-sector and size class, for business services in 13 EU countries. From this we derive scale economies and their development over time. Between 1999 and 2005 we observe a persistence of scale inefficiencies and X-inefficiencies, with scale efficiency falling rather than growing over time. This indicates malfunctioning competitive selection.
The time pattern of inefficiencies is significantly explained by regulatory policies that hamper entry and exit dynamics and labour adjustment, and by a lack of import penetration. The results suggest that policy reform and more market openness may have positive productivity effects. This holds for business services itself, but also wider, because of business services’ large role in intermediary production inputs.
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n° 209, April 2012
Inside Liquidity in Competitive Markets
Michiel Bijlsma & Andrei Dubovik & Gijsbert Zwart
In CPB Discussion Paper 209 we study incentives of financial intermediaries to reserve liquidity given that they can rely on the interbank market for their liquidity needs. Intermediaries can partially pledge their assets to each other, but not to the rest of the economy. Therefore liquidity provision is endogenous.
We show that if the probability of a crisis is large or if assets are slightly pledgeable, then all intermediaries reserve liquidity. However, if the probability of a crisis is small or if assets are highly pledgeable, then intermediaries segregate ex ante: some reserve no liquidity, others reserve to the maximum and become liquidity providers. This segregation arises, because in the latter case the crisis short-term rate exceeds the returns on long-term investments, while at the same time higher liquidity holdings also increase survival probability. Together, these two effects result in increasing marginal returns to liquidity in the crisis state, and, consequently, segregation ex ante. In either equilibrium, aggregate liquidity is too small if assets are not fully pledgeable. Minimum liquidity requirements only improve welfare in the symmetric equilibrium. Marginally lowering the interest rate causes a marginal crowding-out of private liquidity with public liquidity in the symmetric equilibrium, but a full crowding-out in the asymmetric equilibrium.
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n° 208, March 2012
The Effect of Physician Fees and Density Differences on Regional Variation in Hospital Treatments
Rudy Douven, Remco Mocking, Ilaria Mosca
We use a panel data set of about 1.7 million hospital records in 4,000 Dutch zip code regions for the years 2006-2009. We estimate the effect of physician fees and physician density on regional variation in hospital care for nine different treatments.
Our results show that a 1 percent increase in the total number of physicians, if these extra physicians are all paid according to an output-based reimbursement scheme, would increase the number of treatments on average by 0.40 percent. For salaried physicians we find a significantly lower average effect of 0.15 percent. We find no or weak effects for hip fractures, which is included in the analysis as a control treatment. Our data allows us to deal with reverse causality, excess demand, border crossing, and availability effects. Our findings lend support to the existence of supplier induced demand for the majority of the analyzed treatments.
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n° 207, February 2012
The world’s oldest fiscal watchdog: CPB’s analyses foster consensus on economic policy
BOS Frits, TEULINGS Coen
The sovereign debt problems in European countries have increased the interest in fiscal watchdogs. This paper discusses the world's oldest fiscal watchdog, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB). CPB was founded directly after World War II. It has built a reputation of independence and quality, while it has also achieved a solid position in Dutch policy making. CPB provides (i) the macroeconomic forecast underlying the annual budget, (ii) a midterm review of the state of public finance at the start of each election cycle, (iii) cost-benefit analyses of all kind of policy proposals (from education to physical infrastructure), and (iv) an assessment of the economic impact of the platforms of political parties before the election.
Four lessons can be drawn from 65 years of Dutch experience. Firstly, a reputation of quality and independence is crucial for the success of a watchdog. Building such a reputation takes time. Secondly, the scope of activities should not be limited to fiscal policy only. The broad scope of CPB's analyses has contributed to shared public understanding of relevant trade-offs and policy options. Thirdly, the effectiveness of CPB depends crucially on a clear demarcation of the distinctive roles of CPB and political parties. Welfare theory provides little guidance in drawing this demarcation line. Fourthly, being part of the government has the advantage of getting inside information and being effective in the daily policy making process, but the disadvantage that the actual or perceived independence is more difficult to maintain.
n° 206, January 2012
Sorting and the output loss due to search frictions
TEULINGS Coen
We analyze a general search model with on-the-job search and sorting of heterogeneous workers into heterogeneous jobs. This model yields a simple relationship between (i) the unemployment rate, (ii) the value of non-market time, and (iii) the max-mean wage differential. The latter measure of wage dispersion is more robust than measures based on the reservation wage, due to the long left tail of the wage distribution. We estimate this wage differential using data on match quality and allow for measurement error. The estimated wage dispersion and mismatch for the US is consistent with an unemployment rate of 5%. Finally, we find that without search frictions, output would be 6.6% higher.
n° 205, February 2012
What Awareness? Consumer Perception of Bank Risk and Deposit Insurance
BIJLSMA Michiel, VAN DER WIEL Karen
This paper provides unique survey evidence on consumer awareness about deposit insurance and on consumer perception of the stability of small and systemic banks. It turns out that systemic banks are perceived as less risky compared to non-systemic banks and that respondents' own bank is considered safer than other banks. We also find that knowledge on the eligibility for deposit insurance is limited, in particular when it concerns small banks. In addition, consumers generally expect an associated payback time that well exceeds the time it has taken to pay back depositors in the past, expecting a higher as well as faster payback for large, systemic banks. This confirms that households' awareness of the coverage and operations of deposit insurance are suboptimal. We also find that awareness about and trust in the deposit insurance system has only a marginal effect on deposit behavior in “normal” and “crisis” times. Thus while the evidence suggests that there is ample scope to improve awareness about deposit insurance, it is far from sure that such policies will affect household behavior.
n° 204, January 2012
Competition for traders and risk
BIJLSMA Michiel, ZWART Gijsbert
The financial crisis has been attributed partly to perverse incentives for traders at banks and has led policy makers to propose regulation of banks’ remuneration packages. We explain why poor incentives for traders cannot be fully resolved by only regulating the bank’s top executives, and why direct intervention in trader compensation is called for. We present a model with both trader moral hazard and adverse selection on trader abilities. We demonstrate that as competition on the labour market for traders intensifies, banks optimally offer top traders contracts inducing them to take more risk, even if banks fully internalize the costs of negative outcomes. In this way, banks can reduce the surplus they have to offer to lower ability traders. In addition, we find that increasing banks’ capital requirements does not unambiguously lead to reduced risk-taking by their top traders.
n° 203, February 2012
Currency derivatives and the disconnection between exchange rate volatility and international trade
STRAATHOF Bas, CALIO Paolo
The impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade is small for industrialized countries, especially since the late 1980s. An explanation for this is Wei’s (1999) “hedging hypothesis”, which states that the availability of currency derivatives has changed the relation between exchange rate volatility and trade. Exchange rate risk will only have a small effect on international transactions as long as this risk is easily tradable.
We find evidence indicating that the availability of currency futures can explain the relatively small impact of exchange rate volatility on trade.
n° 202, Janvier 2012
Financial transaction tax: review and assessment
ANTHONY Jürgen, BIJLSMA Michiel, ELBOURNE Adam, LEVER Marcel, ZWART Gijsbert
We explore whether a Financial Transactions Tax (FTT) is likely to correct the market failures that have contributed to the financial crisis, to what extent FTT succeeds in raising revenues, and how the FTT compares to alternative taxes in terms of efficiency. We find little evidence that the FTT will be effective in correcting market failures. Taxing of transactions is not well targeted at behaviour that leads to excessive risk and systemic risk creation. The empirical evidence does not suggest that the introduction of an FTT reduces volatility or asset price bubbles. An FTT will likely raise significant revenues and we estimate those revenues for the Netherlands. In the short term, the incidence of the tax will be chiefly on the current holders of securities. Ultimately, the tax will be borne in part by end users, and we estimate the likely effects on economic growth. When compared to alternative forms of taxation of the financial sector, the FTT is likely less efficient given the amount of revenues. In particular, taxes that more directly address existing distortions, such as the current VAT exemption for banks, and the bias towards debt financing, provide more efficient alternatives.
n° 201, Janvier 2012
The Labour Market in CGE Models
BOETERS Stefan, SAVARD Luc
This chapter reviews options of labour market modelling in a CGE framework. On the labour supply side, two principal modelling options are distinguished and discussed: aggregated, representative households and microsimulation based on individual household data. On the labour demand side, we focus on the substitution possibilities between different types of labour in production. With respect to labour market coordination, we discuss several wage-forming mechanisms and involuntary unemployment.
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