CPB Document 2005
n° 103, November 2005
Hoe effectief is extra fiscale stimulering van speur- en ontwikkelingswerk?
CORNET Maarten, VROOMEN Björn
In 2001 zijn twee wijzigingen in de WBSO doorgevoerd: invoering van de startersfaciliteit en de verlenging van de eerste WBSO-schijf. Dit document onderzoekt de effectiviteit van deze wijzigingen door gebruik te maken van hun ‘natuurlijk experiment’ karakter. Dat betekent dat bij beide wijzigingen een controlegroep van WBSO-deelnemers aan te wijzen is, die geen voordeel van de wijziging hebben, maar verder goed overeenkomen met de experimentele groep bedrijven die wel van de wijziging profiteert. Iedere euro afdrachtsvermindering besteed via de startersfaciliteit leidt tot zo’n 50 tot 80 cent extra S&O-arbeid. Voor de verlenging gaat het om 10 tot 20 cent extra S&O-arbeid per euro afdrachtsvermindering. De overtuigingskracht van het laatstgenoemde resultaat is relatief beperkt, omdat de setting niet goed voldoet aan de voorwaarden van een natuurlijk
n° 102, November 2005
Do market failures hamper the perspectives of broadband?
VAN DIJK Machiel, MINNE Bert, MULDER Machiel, POORT Joost, VAN DER WIEL Henry
Breedband wordt beschouwd als een belangrijke bron voor productiviteitsgroei en verbetering van de levensstandaard. Een van de belangrijkste doelen van de Europese Unie is om de ontwikkelingen van breedbandinfrastructuur te stimuleren. In Nederland bestaat ongerustheid of de markt wel zorgt voor voldoende breedbandcapaciteit om aan de sterk groeiende vraag te kunnen blijven voldoen. Dit rapport behandelt de vraag of de markten inderdaad genoeg hun werk doen en welke specifieke rol er eventueel is weggelegd voor de overheid. De belangrijkste conclusies zijn dat er geen marktgebreken bestaan die aanpassingen vergen van het huidige breedbandbeleid. Bedrijven ondervinden voldoende prikkels om te investeren in breedband, mede door specifieke regulering van de openstelling van het aansluitnetwerk. Marktgebreken rond bijvoorbeeld kennisoverdrachten worden aangepakt via ander beleid. De markten rond breedband zijn erg dynamisch, waardoor in de toekomst onvoorziene marktgebreken zouden kunnen opkomen in de vorm van een dominante techniek of dominante marktspeler. Voor de overheid is het daarom zinvol om de breedbandmarkten voortdurend te blijven volgen zodat zij direct kan ingrijpen als dat nodig mocht zijn.
n° 101, November 2005
Europe's financial perspectives in perspective.
G.M.M. Gelauff - H. Stolwijk - P. Veenendaal
The budget of the European Union raises much commotion. Many member states anxiously guard their net payment positions: don't they pay too much for the EU compared to what they receive from the EU? Yet, from an economic perspective the subsidiarity principle is much more important: Should the funds be allocated by the Union or by the individual member states? From that angle, a number of fundamental reforms of European agricultural policy and structural actions (support to lagging regions) suggest themselves. These reform options may roughly halve the EU budget. In addition they happen to bring the net payment positions of member states closer together.
n° 100, November 2005
Belastingherziening 2001 en de werkgelegenheid van vrouwen;een analyse op basis van de Enquête Beroepsbevolking.
EUWALS R.
Parts of the Dutch tax reform 2001 are directed towards fiscal partners in a household and aim at lowering the tax burden of the partner with the lowest (potential) labour income. An important goal of the reform is to increase the labour market participation and employment rate of these partners, which are in majority women. An analysis of the Labour Force Survey 1992 2003 shows that the reform may indeed have increased the growth of the employment rate of married women. For different groups of married women the growth rate of employment after 2001 was larger than for comparable groups of single women. Although the results are not statistically significant, they are clearly in line with results expected on the basis of ex ante evaluations. Moreover, the employment gap between married and single women is closing with a considerable speed. This is clearly a positive sign for one of the goals of the tax reform, i.e. the emancipation of non-working partners on the labour market
n° 99, October 2005
Economic fluctuations and sickness absence
STEGEMANN Hans
This document empirically investigates the relation between the economic situation and sickness leave in the Netherlands. Like previous research, we find a procyclical relation. Measured by unemployment, the CPB employment barometer or the degree of vacancies, economic upswings go together with more absence due to illness. We estimate the effects with both an error correction model for times series (1980-2003) as well as a fixed-effects model on quarterly industry data for the period 1995-2003. We also show that some policy measures have led to a decrease in sickness absence and that changes in the composition of the workforce tended to raise sickness leave. On balance, the structural level of sickness leave decreased in the last ten to twenty years.
n° 98, October 2005
Crossing borders: when science meets industry
E. Canton - D. Lanser - J. Noailly - M. Rensman - J. van de Ven
Economic growth is ultimately driven by advances in productivity. In turn, productivity growth is driven by R&D and by utilisation of the public knowledge pool. This public knowledge pool is generated by universities and public research institutions. Underutilisation by firms of results from public research can deter economic growth, and the question then emerges how to bring science to the market. In this report we explore whether in Europe public knowledge is underutilised by firms, and investigate the quantitative importance of various knowledge transmission channels (such as publications, informal contacts, consulting). Next we study characteristics of universities and firms that may prevent an effective knowledge transfer. Finally we look at a number of policy initiatives designed to foster science-to-industry knowledge spillovers in the Netherlands and a selection of other countries.
n° 97, October 2005
Switch on the competition. Causes, consequences and policy implications of consumer switching costs
M. Pomp - V. Shestalova - L. Rangel
The success or failure of reforms aimed at liberalising markets depends to an important degree on consumer behaviour. If consumers do not base their choices on differences in prices and quality, competition between firms may be weak and the benefits of liberalisation to consumers may be small. One possible reason why consumers may respond only weakly to differences in price and quality is high costs of switching to another firm. This report presents a framework for analysing markets with switching costs and applies the framework in two empirical case studies. The first case study analyses the residential energy market, the second focuses on the market for social health insurance. In both markets, there are indications that switching costs are substantial. The report discusses policy options for reducing switching costs and for alleviating the consequences of switching costs.
n° 96, September 2005
Competition in markets for life insurance
M. Pomp - M. Bijlsma - M. van Dijk - M. van Leuvensteijn - C. Zonderland
This report presents an empirical analysis of competition in the market for life insurance. In this market, financial advisors play a large role. Therefore, the report devotes considerable attention to the functioning of the market for financial advice. The main findings are as follows. Empirical indicators of competition find only weak competition in the market for life insurance. There are substantial economies of scale, large X-inefficiencies, and limited competition as measured by the Boone-indicator compared to other services sectors. Also, the higher profitability of Dutch life insurers compared to their foreign peers suggests weak competition, although it should be pointed out that this indicator mainly reflects the situation in the past. Better functioning of financial advisors offers a key towards improving competition. Consumers who purchased annuities through advisors are found to achieve lower pay-outs than consumers who purchased directly from life insurers. This finding underlines the importance of more transparency of life insurance products and of independent advice.
n° 95, September 2005
De effectiviteit van de innovatievoucher 2004
M. Cornet - B. Vroomen - M. van der Steeg
The innovation voucher has been introduced in 2004 as a policy instrument to stimulate the interaction between small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and public research institutes. This document provides an estimate of the effectiveness (output) of the innovation voucher, employing the fact that the vouchers were assigned randomly by means of a lottery. The main conclusion is that the innovation voucher stimulates SMEs to engage in many new assignments with public research institutes. Out of every ten vouchers, eight are used for a project that would not have been assigned without such a voucher, one is used for a project that would have been assigned anyhow, and one voucher is not used. A broad assessment of the innovation voucher also needs to take into account the value added of the additional assignments (outcome of the voucher). No insights have yet been obtained here.
n° 94, September 2005
Competition and quality in the notary profession. 2005
NAHUIS Richard, NOAILLY Joëlle
The 1999 Dutch Notary Act has initiated an ambitious deregulation process in the market for notary services in the Netherlands. We evaluate the impact of this liberalisation policy on (i) the level of competition in the profession and (ii) the quality of services. We compare the level of competition before and after the liberalisation using two different indicators, namely a relative-profit indicator and a variation of the Bresnahan-Reiss indicator. Using the relative profit indicator, we find that the level of competition has increased after 1999. We find, however, no significant difference between the level of competition in 1996 and in 2002. This is particularly clear when we measure competition taking the local market as the relevant market for notary services. The results on the national market are more mixed and there is some evidence that competition in 2002 is higher than in 1996. Using the Bresnahan-Reiss indicator, we find that entry does affect conduct in the notary market, but again that the level of competition in the local market for notary services in 2003 does not significantly differ from the 1995 level. We also examine whether competition affects the quality of notary services. We use both subjective and objective measures for quality of notary services. We find that subjective quality - the perceived level of service by clients - is, if anything, negatively affected by competition. Using objective quality, i.e. quality that is not observable to clients, we find that in 2003 competition leads to a deterioration of quality, as the quality of monopoly notaries outperforms the quality of oligopoly notaries. This was not the case in 1995. Confronting our empirical findings with qualitative insights, we present options for policy.
n° 93, September 2005
Liberalisation of the Dutch notary profession. Reviewing its scope and impact
KUYPERS Nicole, NOAILLY Joëlle, VOLLAARD Ben
This study provides an overview of the policy of liberalisation that transformed the Dutch notary profession into one of the least regulated in Europe. We discuss the changes brought with the new Notary Act of 1999, the political debates and lobbying preceding the introduction of the Act, and its impact on the profession. We go into the likely effects on key indicators, including entry, notary fees and the (perceived) quality of service. We place the Dutch experiences in an international context by comparing the Dutch notary profession to the organisation and regulation of the profession in other countries, including the US, Quebec, Germany and Belgium.
n° 92, July 2005
Scarcity of science and engineering students in the Netherlands
NOAILLY Joëlle, WAAGMEESTER Daniel, JACOBS Bas, RENSMAN Marieke, WEBBINK Dinand
Scarcity of science and engineering (S&E) graduates could potentially call for government intervention, because of the role of S&E's in R&D, and because R&D in turn is characterised by positive spillovers. In this report, we investigate whether policies that stimulate enrolment in S&E-studies are effective at increasing R&D-activity. First, we analyse the situation on the Dutch labour market for S&E graduates. We do not find evidence for scarcity of S&E graduates. Rather, the labour market position vis-à-vis other graduates weakened. A possible explanation to reconcile this conclusion with a widely felt concern of S&E shortages among employers is increasing internationalisation of the S&E labour market. Concerning policy, we argue that expanding the stock of S&E graduates is not very effective for boosting R&D activity. More than half the number of S&E graduates do not end up working in R&D. De increasing internationalisation of the S&E labour market can diminish the attractiveness of S&E courses.
n° 91, July 2005
Human capital, R&D, and competition in macroeconomic analysis
CANTON Erik, MINNE Bert, NIEUWENHUIS Ate, SMID Bert, van der STEEG Marc
Long-run per capita economic growth is driven by productivity growth. Major determinants of productivity are investments in education and research, and the intensity of competition on product markets. While these ideas have been incorporated into modern growth theories and tested in empirical analyses, they have not yet found their way to applied macroeconomic models used to forecast economic developments. In this paper, we discuss various options to include human capital, R&D, and product market competition in a macroeconomic framework. We also study how policy can affect the decisions to build human capital or to perform research, and how competition policy impacts on macroeconomic outcomes. We finally sketch how these mechanisms can be implemented into the large models used at CPB.
n° 90, June 2005
The creativity of the market. An exploration of the role of the government in creative industries (only in Dutch)
NAHUIS Richard, WAAGMEESTER Daniël, CANOY Marcel
As a part of a larger project on creative industries from the departments of Economic Affairs and Education, Culture and Science, CPB has performed an analysis of the role of the government concerning creative and cultural products (such as the arts, the media and design). Potential market failures are identified using distinguishing characteristics of creative products. Subsequently we assess whether the government has a role to play and possibilities in reach to alleviate these potential market failures. An important outcome of the analysis is that we should not underestimate the creativity of the market in overcoming potential market failures. Nevertheless there might be reasons (external effects, paternalism) why the government would want to intervene, especially concerning efforts to target underproduction. In those cases it is important to know the underlying causes of underproduction, for otherwise policies cannot be targeted effectively. Given the large heterogeneity of the creative industries and the considerable uncertainties about the functioning of the market, as well as the relevance of market failures and the functioning of government instruments, restraint in policies is recommended.
n° 89, June 2005
Looking for an invisible safety net. How to design the public role in supply security without hindering the market (only in Dutch)
LIJESEN Mark, ZWART Gijsbert
This study provides an economic assessment of several options to provide a safety net for electricity production. The safety net is aimed at preventing black-outs, without disturbing the electricity market. Our analysis suggests that only if the safety net is placed outside the regular market, sufficient security is provided. In this case, the transmission system operator only deploys the safety net after all other options are exhausted and the next alternative would be to disconnect groups of users. By taking the capacity out of the market, prices increase, inducing new investments. When implementing the safety net, one should take into account the trade-off between certainty for investors and the flexibility of the instrument.
n° 88, June 2005
Performance of the Dutch system of education, research and innovation in an international perspective
Antenbrink, Patrick, Burger Kok, Cornet Maarten, Rensman Marieke, Webbink Dinand
This study compares the Dutch knowledge system with the knowledge system in other rich countries using indicators from international studies. The main conclusion is that the performance of Dutch education or research not systematically differs from other rich countries. The second conclusion is that international benchmark can be useful in preparing new policies in case several pitfalls, related to the interpretation and use of indicators, are taken into account. International benchmark does not generate clear prescriptions for new policy but should be used as starting point for further policy analyses.
n° 87, June 2005
An economic assessment of various methods of road pricing
BESSELING Paul
The Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management has asked CPB to assess 10 different schemes of road pricing. The assessment serves to support the platform on 'A Different Way of Paying for Road Use' and the preparation of part III of the governments' Mobility Policy Document. The schemes of road pricing that have been analysed can roughly be grouped into two:
- Specific charges, on a limited number of places and hours
- Flat charges on each kilometer driven.
These pricing schemes have been assessed on their merits as a regulatory instrument (traffic flows, the environment) and as a financing instrument. Moreover, the impacts on the distrubution of income over groups of households and enterprises is studied. According to the cost-benefit analysis, reducing congestion is best served with a policy of constructing new roads in areas where costs are not too high combined with specific road charges on other congested parts of the network. The welfare gains of well-designed congestion charges can exceed 1½ bln euro a year. Capitalised, this amounts to more than 20 bln euro. Flat charges turn out to be less efficiënt.
n° 86, June 2005
Analysing investment proposals in the field of knowledge, environment and spatial economics
VERRIPS Annemiek
The CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis has been requested by ICRE to assess a number of projects submitted in connection with the FES windfall of about 1 billion euro, and the decision-making for the domain nature and environment for the period 2011-2014. This publication presents the assessment of in total 21 projects in the areas knowledge, nature and environment, and spatial economics. Point of departure for the assessment is the question whether the project is expected to contribute to social welfare. The goal of the assessment is to provide information in order to support the appraisal by the Dutch cabinet. Because of the short time span of the project, the analysis has the character of a quick scan.
n° 85, June 2005
Can we afford to live longer in better health?
Ed Westerhout and Frank Pellikaan
This document analyses the effects of ageing populations upon public finances. More specifically, it focuses on the implications of ageing for acute health care, long-term care, and public pension expenditure. It does so for 15 EU countries. It pays particular attention to three novel insights:
i) a large part of health care spending relates to time to death rather than to age
ii) life expectancy may increase much faster than current demographic projections suggest, and
iii) the average health status may continue to improve in the future.
It adopts a generational accounting model that incorporates health care costs during the last years of life, decomposed into an acute health care component and a long-term care component. The projections show that gains in life expectancy increase age-related expenditure; better health has the opposite effect. Combined, these trends reduce health care expenditure and increase pension expenditure. Their joint effect upon public finance is rather modest, however. Hence, the assessment of public finances in most EU15 countries does not change: even if a faster increase in life expectancy should combine with an improvement in health, current fiscal and social security institutions are unsustainable.
n° 84, April 2005
Vertical separation of the energy-distribution industry; an assessment of several options for unbundling
Machiel Mulder, Victoria Shestalova, Mark Lijesen
The Dutch Minister of Economic Affairs has proposed to replace the currently implemented structure of legal unbundling of the energy distribution industry by ownership unbundling. In this study we analyse costs and benefits of this proposal, compared to the current situation, and to two alternative options that strengthen legal unbundling. We identify four mutually-related categories of benefits: better performance of networks, more efficient regulation, improved effectiveness of competition, and benefits of privatisation; and three categories of costs: one-off transaction costs, loss of economies of scope and the risk of less investment in generation. The analysis highlights that the benefits depend on the future development in small-scale generation and on allocation of the management of transmission networks. Mainly because of the uncertainty about the future role of small-scale generation and the uncertainty about the magnitude of the one-off transaction costs related to cross-border leases, the net welfare effect of ownership unbundling at the distribution level is ambiguous. We identify an alternative route for achieving some of the benefits considered.
n° 83, April 2005 (2ème partie)
Kosteneffectiviteit van maatregelen en pakketten: Kosten-batenanalyse voor Ruimte voor de Rivier, deel 2
Ebregt Jos, Carel Eijgenraam, Hermann Stolwijk
This report is part 2 of the economic analysis of the project 'Space for the Rivers', which aims at improving the safety against flooding along the river Rhine. It is a Cost-Effectiveness Analysis (CEA) of proposed measures and packages. A method has been developed for evaluating measures and packages with more than one effect at the same time. Progress in safety, growth of the number of hectares with desired nature, and value judgements on spatial and recreational quality are the elements in the CEA. Combining progress in safety with the development of nature in one measure does not reduce costs in general. The choice of measures along the river Nederrijn-Lek does not seem efficient, both in the base package as in the alternative package. The alternative for the passage Veur-Lent deserves serious consideration.
n° 82, April 2005 (1ère partie)
Veiligheid tegen overstromen: Kosten-batenanalyse voor Ruimte voor de Rivier, deel 1
Carel Eijgenraam
This report is part 1 of a Cost-Benefit Analysis of the project 'Space for the Rivers', which aims at improving the safety against flooding along the river Rhine. A new method has been developed to find the optimal safety level for dike rings against flooding and the accompanying investment strategy. This method has been applied to 22 dike rings along the rivers. An important outcome is that the current safety norms in the Act on the Water defences turn out to be not optimal from an economic point of view. For 16 dike rings, the optimal safety level is higher than their present legal norm, for 9 of them even more than twice. This is especially true for the two dike rings in the province Utrecht: Kromme Rijn and Gelderse Vallei. On the other hand, the dike ring Biesbosch (Noordwaard) should no longer be a well-protected dike ring. The outcomes support a 'robust' investment strategy which takes future changes fully into account.
n° 81, April 2005
Which factors determine the house-price development in the Netherlands?
Johan Verbruggen, Henk Kranendonk, Michiel van Leuvensteijn et Michel Toet
Given the economic impact of house price developments, a better understanding of its explanatory variables is important. This document first describes the special characteristics of houses and the Dutch housing market. This is followed by a summary of empirical research on house prices for the Netherlands. Next, estimation results are presented of an error correction model for Dutch housing prices. The model explains the developments since 1980 fairly well. For about 75%, the relatively high real house price increases in the period 1992-2000 can be attributed to a strong growth in real disposable wage income and financial households' wealth (excluding stocks). Furthermore, the drop in the real interest rate and the small supply of newly built houses had an impact as well. In the period 2001-2003, real house price increases were much smaller. This was mainly caused by a smaller increase in prosperity. Besides, in recent years owner-occupied properties were somewhat overvalued. The correction that followed had a downward effect on house prices as well. However, because of asymmetries, this reaction to the excessive price hike has been limited.
n° 80, March 2005
Is the European economy a patient, and the Union its doctor?
Albert van der Horst, Sjief Ederveen, Paul Tang
A stronger focus on jobs and growth is part of an effort to renew the Lisbon strategy. This will not automatically and immediately contribute to social cohesion and the environment. For example, higher productivity is not likely to add to the financial sustainability of the public sector.
Looking back, employment (jobs) keeps expanding in the European Union whereas the productivity growth rate is falling. The latter is not easily explained by (falling) investment in knowledge. Instead, the current relatively low productivity growth rate largely reflects success in the past: many European countries have caught up with the United States and have seen relatively fast employment growth in the late nineties. Looking forward, we argue that the combination of the Open Method of Coordination (OMC) with National Action Plans, the way Europe wants to achieve its goals, is both too little and too much: European interference with national employment polices has a weak basis, whereas OMC may not provide the member states with strong enough commitment to pursue an innovation agenda.
n° 79, February 2005
Measuring lifetime redistribution in Dutch collective arrangements
Harry ter REELE
This paper assesses how the system of Dutch collective arrangements redistributes between the rich and the poor. Its approach deviates from the way these issues are commonly dealt with by incorporating the full life cycle in the measurements, rather than only the annual effects, and by including a larger part of the arrangements than is usually the case. The measurements on redistribution are carried out using the level of educational attainment to classify the population. For an average, representative person of each level of education we measure, in terms of present values, the average net benefit from government. The results show that the net benefits are positive for the lower levels of education and negative for the higher levels. The figures indicate a sizable redistribution from the rich to the poor and a significant reduction of welfare inequality. The net effect on income inequality is, however, substantially smaller than when it is measured on an annual basis
n° 78, February 2005
A view of tomorrow. An economic analysis of the digitalising landscape
NAHUIS Richard, APPELMAN Marja, van DIJK Machiel, VOLLAARD Ben, WAAGMEESTER Daniël
In this study, we analyse the performance of the market for media products. We examine how the means to effectively achieve government goals in this sector are affected by technological and social trends, taking the government aims as a given. The conclusion is that the market for media products is increasingly operating like a 'normal' market. The result of this is that a number of aims are more easily reached (pluralism, accessibility), but that policy intervention is still needed for the remaining aim of quality (and perhaps independence). We also argue that the focus of policy should no longer be on the distribution channel (like television or newspapers), but rather on the type of content (e.g. news or entertainment). The most eminent reason for this shift in perspective is the growing convergence between the various distribution channels, as well as the observation that specific media goals are relevant to varying degrees for the different types of content. Combining the content approach with the movement towards a 'normal' market, leads us to conclude that the public service broadcaster could have a more limited mandate.
n° 77, February 2005
Accuracy of CPB forecasts for the period 1971-2003
KRANENDONK Henk, VERBRUGGEN Johan
This report analyses the accuracy of CPB's short-term forecasts of the Dutch economy in the period 1971-2003. Regularly, CPB compares its forecasts with the outcomes in order to learn from mistakes made and to illustrate the uncertainty around the projections. In this report, we focus on the track record of the short-term forecasts for the current year and the year ahead published each year in the Macro Economic Outlook on the third Tuesday in September. Special attention is being paid to:
- Forecast errors in recent years;
- The effect of preliminary data adjustments of Statistics Netherlands on the accuracy;
- The way errors in the external assumptions influence the accuracy of the Dutch core variables' forecasts;
- Criteria to test the unbiasedness and efficiency of CPB's short-term forecasts.
Besides, we clarify the way CPB makes its short-term forecasts. Finally, the several sources for making forecast errors are mentioned.
n° 76, February 2005
Relocation from the Netherlands - Motives, consequences and policy
GORTER Joeri, TANG Paul, TOET Michel
As a result of globalisation, the concerns about reallocation of economic activities are growing. To address these concerns, the CPB Document deals with the motives for and consequences of reallocation. It also goes into the role of government policy. The motives for reallocation are found in the benefits that it offers firms. Through reallocation, firms exploit cost differences between countries and get better access to customers and suppliers. The benefits of reallocation contribute to real income in the Netherlands. There are also potential costs. One concern is that reallocation towards low-wage countries will lead to unemployment, especially among low-skilled workers. This concern is practically not very relevant. In general, the costs of reallocation seem modest. Given policies to improve the economic structure, specific policies to keep economic activities in the Netherlands is as a rule not necessary. Often specific policies will not be effective either.
n° 75, January 2005
Police numbers up, crime rates down. The effect of police on crime in the Netherlands, 1996 - 2003
VOLLAARD Ben
In this study, we present evidence on the effect of greater numbers of police personnel on crime and nuisance reduction within the Dutch context. We use a multiple time series design with police regions as the unit of analysis, covering the period 1996-2003. During this period, police resources increased substantially. The growth in additional resources differed greatly between regions, allowing us to use this policy intervention to identify the effect of police on crime and nuisance. We control for regional economic, social and demographic factors and for national trends that might obscure the effect of police on crime. We find significantly negative effects of higher police levels on property crime, violent crime and nuisance. Our estimates suggest that a substantial proportion of the decline in crime and nuisance during the period 1996-2003 is attributable to the increase in police personnel.
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