Medium-Term Projections 2023-2027

STATEC is today publishing the medium-term projections used to draw up the next SGP (Stability and Growth Programme) and the next National Reform Plan (NRP). In a context marked by the consequences of a still very tense geopolitical situation, STATEC expects in its central scenario a slowdown in activity in 2023, a rebound in 2024, then a stabilisation of the rate of expansion at around 3%. Potential growth is estimated at 2.5%, as is the average increase in employment. Unemployment is expected to rise slightly over the period, while inflation would only normalise from 2025 onwards. With unchanged policy, public finances would be marked by an unprecedented deficit that would be gradually reduced. STATEC also proposes two alternative scenarios, one of which is unfavourable, specifically modelling the impact of a real estate crash in the euro zone, leading in particular to a less favourable evolution of the labour market and also affecting household consumption expenditure.

Table 1: Summary of the medium-term projection