Inflation forecast: 3.9% for 2023 and 2.5% for 2024

The gradual fall in the inflation rate since October 2022 has been well anticipated. STATEC is maintaining its inflation forecast at 3.9% in 2023 and 2.5% in 2024. The next index-linked payment is scheduled for September 2023. However, it is possible that this indexation will not take place until October, if August inflation is below 4.1%. A further instalment would be added in the 3rd quarter of 2024.

In the light of previous forecasts (in particular those published last May), STATEC has anticipated the slowdown in inflation seen in recent months relatively well.

In July 2023, annual inflation will reach 3.75% in Luxembourg. However, this increase conceals opposing trends between oil prices and underlying inflation. Since February, petroleum products have been helping to bring down the general inflation rate, notably through negative base effects. However, given the fuel price rises announced at the beginning of the month, petroleum products should make less of a contribution to the fall in annual inflation in August.