Economic seminar - Luxembourg in 2070: one million inhabitants, but slowing growth

The economic seminar "Luxembourg in 2070: one million inhabitants, but slowing growth", organised by STATEC, took place on Wednesday 13 May 2026 at 11 AM.
On this occasion, François Peltier and Gabriel Gomes presented the following topic:

Luxembourg’s population is projected to approach one million inhabitants by 2070. However, this demographic growth would be significantly more moderate than that observed since the early 2000s and would rely almost exclusively on net migration.
These projections are based on STATEC’s macroeconomic-demographic model, which captures a reality specific to Luxembourg: demography and the economy form a virtuous cycle—economic activity attracts foreign workers, who in turn support population growth, employment, and the country’s economic potential.
This seminar follows the economic seminar held in July 2024. It updates the projections and incorporates new sensitivity analyses.

Key points

• Potential GDP growth is expected to slow structurally: it would become nearly zero in low-productivity scenarios, but remain around 2% per year in the most favorable scenarios.
• Population ageing is unavoidable: the share of people aged 65 and over could nearly triple by 2070, bringing the dependency ratio to between 49% and 58%.
• Migration remains the main driver of demographic and economic growth: without immigration from 2040 onwards, potential growth would be reduced by 1 percentage point.
• Assumptions on productivity and investment are decisive: in favorable scenarios, the virtuous cycle of productivity–wages–immigration is maintained and total employment would exceed 900,000 by 2070; in unfavorable scenarios, it would be limited to around 750,000.