Annual inflation rises to 2.9% in September

Annual inflation is accelerating, rising from 2.2% in August to 2.9% in September, driven by the recent rebound in oil prices and a greater contribution from service prices. 

Chart 1: Annual inflation rate and contributions

Source: STATEC

After several months of consecutive falls, the trend in energy prices has reversed, with prices rising by 6.4% in one month and now 12% higher than in September 2025. The increase is particularly marked for heating oil, with prices jumping by 12.6% month-on-month and 61.4 % year-on-year. Motor fuels have also risen compared with the previous month: the price per litre of diesel has risen by 8.5% and that of petrol by 8.8%. Year-on-year, the price per litre of diesel rose by 44.2% and that of petrol by 25.0%. By contrast, gas and electricity prices remained unchanged in September.

Prices for services have risen by 3.4% year-on-year, compared with 2.6% in August. This acceleration is due to the rise in fees for nurseries and after-school care centres, which are up 13% compared with September 2025. However, this is a volatile figure, due to the fact that after-school care centres are free during term time (and charge fees during school holidays), and a significant fall is expected next month. Package holiday prices are 5.6% higher year-on-year, but down 6.9% compared with August 2026. Airfares are also up compared with September 2025 (+8.6%), but down compared with the previous month (-13.6%). Price increases were observed in the catering sector (+0.2% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year). With the start of the new school year, fee rises were recorded for private primary and secondary education (up 2.5% and 1.0% respectively). On the other hand, fee reductions were recorded for language courses (down 0.75).

Food prices, including alcoholic drinks and tobacco, rose by 1.8% year-on-year in September 2026. Certain categories stood out with particularly sharp increases, notably fruiting vegetables (tomatoes, peppers, courgettes, cucumbers, etc.), which rose by 20.8% year-on-year, frozen fruit (+6.6%) and fresh meat (+3.5%). Conversely, prices for pasta (-4.7%), citrus fruits (-3.6%) and stone fruits (-2.7%) were down compared with September 2025.

The aggregate for non-energy industrial goods showed the lowest year-on-year increase (+0.8 %). The strongest year-on-year growth was recorded for newspapers, which rose by 7.5% year-on-year. Price rises were also recorded for household cleaning and maintenance products (+4.3 % year-on-year and +1.3% month-on-month). On the other hand, price falls were recorded for bicycles, which fell by 4.9% compared with September 2025 and by 3.6% month-on-month.

Table 1: Price changes for the four main IPCN aggregates

Source: STATEC

The annual inflation rate rose to 2.9% in September, compared with 2.2% over the previous three months. The all-items index excluding energy rose from 1.9% to 2.2%. The all-items index for September, expressed on a 2025 base of 100, stood at 103.89 points. The half-yearly average of the index, linked to the base date of 1 January 1948, rose from 1,054.27 to 1,058.56 points. The next indexation will be triggered when the value of 1,064.75 is reached; the cumulative rise in prices therefore stands at 1.90% since the last index adjustment.

TABLE 2: Price changes in the 13 divisions of the IPCN

Source: STATEC

Chart 2: Evolution of the Price Index and Inflation in Luxembourg

The chart shows the parallel evolution of the price index (yellow line) and the annual inflation rate (blue line) in Luxembourg since 2016. The horizontal lines indicate the various index thresholds corresponding to index tranche levels. The index gradually moves towards the current threshold, while inflation fluctuations explain periods of faster or slower progression.

The results of the index for October 2026 will be published on 4 November 2026, following the Index Committee’s monthly meeting. A preliminary estimate of the annual inflation rate will be published on 30 October 2026.