Spatial distribution of the population in Luxembourg
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The residential core of Luxembourg-City already boasts more than 170,000 inhabitants,
170.000and the spectacular increase in population has resulted in densification of already urbanized areas, without leading to the uncontrolled conquest of sparsely inhabited territories.
Nearly one in five people live in the Capital
In November 2021, Luxembourg will have a population of 643,941. This is a considerable growth compared to the last census in 2011 (+25.7%), and represents an average annual growth rate of 2.3%, one of the highest in Europe (behind Malta). Far from being uniform across the country, population growth is highly variable.
In 2021, with 128,097 inhabitants, Luxembourg City will be the country's most densely populated municipality, far ahead of Esch-sur-Alzette (36,117). In the south of the country, three other communes have more than 20,000 inhabitants: Differdange, Dudelange and Pétange. In total, more than a third of the population (36.4%) lives in these five communes.
They are followed by several communes with populations more than 10,000 - Sanem and Hesperange, Bettembourg, Schifflange, Käerjeng, Mamer, Strassen and Mersch. Together, these municipalities form two major urban centers, accounting for half (51.7%) of the country's total population.
Map 1: Population growth in all municipalities
Some municipalities have populations of between 5,000 and 10,000: they are in the southern strip, on the northeastern outskirts of Luxembourg-City, in the Nordstad or close to the German and French borders. They account for 20% of the total population.
The remainder of the population is spread across less populous communes, representing 28% of the total population.
Overall, a comparison of communal populations between 2011 and 2021 (see Map 1) shows no radical change. Growth appears to be balanced according to the previous population, with no new polarities emerging, despite the significant addition of population in terms of volume.
A diverse evolution but a stable distribution
Map 2: Map of population growth at 1 km 2
For a more detailed analysis, it's best to work with maps that subdivide the country into 1km2 cells, giving the impression of a division into pixels.
The map in this configuration reveals the variety of spatial population distribution within urbanized areas: some cells have fewer than 150 inhabitants, while Luxembourg-City has ONE cell with 14,663 inhabitants (the cell covering the station, Bonnevoie-Nord and Bonnevoie-Sud districts)!
Esch-sur-Alzette, on the other hand, has one cell with 11,196 residents (the Uecht district, and parts of Brill, Bruch and AlEsch).
However, compared to 2011, the number of residents has remained largely stable. No new densely populated cells have appeared in ten years. Density levels are higher, but the spatial distribution is very similar despite the addition of 131,588 inhabitants.
Population trends per 1 km2 cell have varied considerably over the last ten years. Map 2 shows increases (up to +5,000 inhabitants per cell) and decreases (more limited, but down to -450 inhabitants.)
Between 2011 and 2021, we can see a strengthening of concentration in the mining basin and the capital. But unlike the municipal level, which only showed population increases between the last two censuses, the cell analysis shows cells with population decreases, including in the coalfield and around the capital.
Five of the six cells with the highest population increases are located in the city of Luxembourg. The sixth is in the center of Differdange, where the sharp rise in population can be explained by the city's development policy and major residential projects. In the coalfield, population increases tend to be concentrated in the central cells of towns, while decreases can be seen in the peripheral cells, as well as on the outskirts of the capital and small towns.
An increasingly dense urban structure in Luxembourg
Map 3: Degree of urbanisation in 2021
In 2021, the urban structure of the region is marked by a contrast between the urbanized south and center of the country and the highly rural north of the Nordstad.
The country's one and only urban center is characterized by an area covering the city of Luxembourg and parts of Hesperange, Strassen, Bertrange and Walferdange, and by a peri-urban ring extending to the north and west of the capital.
In the former mining south, the structure is made up of several dense urban clusters and a peri-urban strip, forming what is known as a conurbation.
Uninhabited areas and low- and very low-density rural clusters are located mainly in the north of the country. Uninhabited or sparsely inhabited cells cover 90.6% of the country's surface area, reflecting the importance of morphologically rural areas scattered throughout the country.
To sum up, in 2021, 53.5% of the total population will reside in relatively dense cities, more precisely 24.5% in the urban center, 20.9% in dense urban clusters and 8.1% in semi-dense clusters. Together, these three urban classes occupy just 5.3% of Luxembourg's territory. The remaining 46.5% of the population is divided between suburban cells (15.5%) and rural cells (31.1%).
However, between 2011 and 2021, the most striking spatial change is the expansion of the Luxembourg City urban cluster (from 28 to 47 cells or km2), particularly to the north and west. It now includes 8 localities, compared with 3 previously.
Over the last 10 years, the population has become more concentrated in dense areas, particularly in the urban center (+70.9%) and in dense and semi-dense towns (+55.1% and +72.7%), reflecting a trend towards concentration or densification, even in more remote areas: the population is concentrated mainly in already urbanised areas and tends to cluster in areas that are already relatively dense without spreading out.
308 settlements, one of which
contains 27% of the population!
To make the maps even clearer, we have zoomed in even further to identify the hubs and the limits of their extension. Here we are working with 200 m cells, a distance commonly used to identify urban breaks. The map shows 308 nuclei.
Map 4: Mapping of habitat nodes in 2021
The most striking fact in terms of population is the importance of the core area of Luxembourg City, which alone accounts for 27% of the country's population, or 173,907 inhabitants. It has 4 times the population of the second core (Differdange with 44,589 inhabitants) and 5 times that of the third core (Esch with 34,189), which together account for four out of every ten inhabitants.
If we add the 3 other nuclei with more than 10,000 inhabitants, all located in the south (Pétange, Dudelange, Schifflange), we have 48% of the total population living in just 6 nuclei.
At the other end of the hierarchy, only 3.4% of the population (21,691 people) live dispersed, i.e. outside the 308 nuclei. That's not a lot, and it's very good news in terms of land-use planning and the sprawl of natural areas.
More anecdotally, but rather surprisingly, this dispersed settlement still covers almost half the list of localities.
Thirdly, the smallest nuclei, with between 150 and 500 inhabitants, are spread evenly across the country. Logically, they are the most numerous, but in the end represent only 7.2% of the population.
In conclusion, over the last 10 years, Luxembourg's dynamism has led to a densification of the territory. Overall, the urban structure has not changed fundamentally, with the main trend being towards greater density in towns and cities, as well as in small centres, even in rural areas.
However, densification has not had an impact on the distribution of the population of the Grand Duchy. In 10 years, there has been no uncontrolled conquest of land and no sudden urbanisation of previously sparsely populated areas.
Find out more about spatial distribution of the population in Luxembourg
More results
In the coming months, various publications will be produced for the public, but also for the public specialised in demographic issues. At the same time, statistical tables on the various census topics will be published on the Statistics Portal.
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Census results are essential information for public policy decision-making.
Census data help to forecast needs for land use planning, schools, nurseries, hospitals, retirement and nursing homes, housing, etc.
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