CPB Document 2007
n° 156, December 2007
Verdubbeling van de instroom in de Wajong: oorzaken en beleidsopties
SUIJKER F.W.
De instroom in de Wet Arbeidsongeschiktheidsvoorziening Jonggehandicapten (Wajong) is sterk gestegen. Dit document zet de recente ontwikkelingen bij de Wajong op een rij, gaat in op de mogelijke oorzaken en schetst een aantal beleidsopties om de arbeidsparticipatie van jonggehandicapten te verhogen. De belangrijkste conclusie is dat er volop mogelijkheden zijn om via nieuw beleid de instroom in de Wajong te beperken en de arbeidsparticipatie te bevorderen.
n° 155, November 2007
India and the Dutch economy; stylised facts and prospects
SUYKER Wim, DE GROOT Henri, BUITELAAR Piet
India's impressive economic performance over the past few decades has had a positive net impact on the Dutch economy. Peculiar for India is its relatively strong position on the global markets for services. Imports of cheap Indian products have slightly improved Dutch households' purchasing power. Increasing Indian exports did not have a noticeable impact on the pace of restructuring in the Netherlands. Nor did this development lead to a marked widening of Dutch wage differentials. Concerning global competition, Indian export products tend to be more complements than substitutes for Dutch export products. The large Indian market yields interesting investment opportunities for Dutch firms. Over the next few decades, the Indian economy is expected to continue its rapid expansion. Increasing trade with India will continue and is expected to enhance Dutch welfare in the upcoming years and will continue to be associated with modest increases in competition and continued restructuring on some markets.
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n° 154, October 2007
The economic effects of Croatia's accession to the EU
LEJOUR Arjan, MERVAR Andrea, VERWEIJ Gerard
We explore the economic implications of the possible accession of Croatia to the European Union. We focus on two main changes associated with the EU-membership: accession to the internal European Market and institutional reforms in Croatia triggered by the EU-membership. consumption per capita in Croatia is estimated to rise by about 2.5% as a result of accession to the internal market. In particular the textile and wearing apparel sectors expand. If Croatia succeeds in reforming its domestic institutions in response to the EU-membership, income levels in Croatia could increase even more. In particular, tentative estimates suggest that GDP per capita in Croatia could even rise by additional 8%. Overall, the macroeconomic implications for the existing EU countries are negligible.
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n° 153, October 2007
Immigration Policy and Welfare State Design . A Qualitative Approach to Explore the Interaction
CHORNY Victoria, EUWALS Rob, FOLMER Kees
For the design of an immigration policy, in terms of the number and skills of the entrants and their effect on the host country, it is important to realize that the kind of welfare state matters. This study confronts three possible labour migration regimes - a temporary, an open and a selective regime - with two possible welfare state settings - a highly redistributive and a hardly redistributive welfare state. By comparing the likely outcomes between the different regimes, and by taking possible effects on the self-selection of immigrants into account, the study draws the following conclusions. First, both labour migration policy and the welfare state matter for the skill composition of labour migrants. Second, to be attractive for high-skilled labour migrants a highly distributive welfare state needs to undo its discouraging effect on these migrants. Third, a highly redistributive welfare state is attractive for low-skilled labour migrants. Because these migrants may become costly for such a welfare state once they manage to stay permanently, one should be careful with the introduction of temporary migration policies for the low-skilled.
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n° 152, October 2007
Qaly-tijd; nieuwe medische technologie, kosteneffectiviteit en richtlijnen
POMP J.M.
New medical technology is an important source of welfare growth, but also a main driver of rising health expenditure. Hence, decisions about the admission of new medical technology to the basic health insurance package are of great importance to society. The cost-effectiveness criterion - the incremental cost per Quality adjusted life year - could play a valuable role in these decisions. Currently, this potential is only partially exploited. Moreover, it is unclear what is an acceptable price per QALY - how much is society willing to pay for a QALY? Policymakers could provide more guidance in this respect. Including cost-effectiveness as one of the criteria in formulating clinical practice guidelines seems a promising policy option. Key words: Cost-effectiveness, QALY, medical technology
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n° 151, September 2007
Actualisatie Economische Verkenning 2008-2011SMID Bert
In dit document wordt een scenario voor de economische groei, de koopkrachtontwikkeling en de overheidsfinanciën geschetst. Het betreft een actualisatie van de Economische Verkenning 2008-2011. Het oorspronkelijke scenario uit september 2006 (CPB Document 129), dat diende als basispad voor de analyse van de verkiezingsprogramma's, was beleidsarm. In het huidige scenario is het beleid van het nieuwe kabinet verwerkt. Een eerste indicatie van de (ex ante) effecten van de beleidsvoornemens van het nieuwe kabinet heeft het CPB in februari jl. gepubliceerd.
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n° 150, July 2007
The Dutch fiscal framework; history, current practice and the role of the CPBBOS Frits
According to the IMF and the OECD, the Dutch fiscal framework is rather unique, and its design and implementation are highly recommendable. Major features of the Dutch fiscal framework are the trend-based fiscal framework with real net expenditure ceilings for the whole term of government, the role of independent organisations, like the CPB, Statistics Netherlands and the Netherlands Court of Audit, and the intermediary role of the national advisory group on budgetary principles. This paper discusses the current practice of the Dutch fiscal framework, including the role played by the CPB. It also provides an overview of its history. Three periods are distinguished: the balanced budget as official principle (1814-1956), Keynesian deficit norms (1957-1979) and norms for reducing deficit and debt (1980-present).
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n° 149, July 2007
Re-exports: International comparison and implications for performance indicatorsMELLENS Martin, NOORDMAN Herman, VERBRUGGEN Johan
Since the mid eighties, re-exports in the Netherlands has been booming, with the exception of a short interruption in 2001 and 2002. This research shows that a relatively strong growth of re-exports is not just a Dutch phenomenon, but that there is an international trend going on. Re-exported products are at least doubly counted in world trade figures. This international re-exports trend contributes to the fact that world trade volume is growing faster than the volume of world export production. Besides, there are some serious implications for the indicators of countries' exports performances. If one doesn't take account of the implications of the international re-exports trend, the relevant export market growth for Dutch manufactures as well as the loss of market share of Dutch industrialists are overestimated.
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n° 148, June 2007
RAM - Regionaal Arbeidsmarktmodel voor Nederland
VERKADE Eugène, VERMEULEN Wouter, HAAGSMA Jelte
This study contains a description of a regional labour market model for the Netherlands (RAM), that has been developed by CPB. The model has been used in the study Welfare and Physical Environment (WLO) for the construction of long-term scenarios for the regional spread of national economic and demographic developments. The model follows a top down approach, while generating internally consistent time paths on the regional distribution of population and employment and their interaction with the housing stock. The main model equations have been founded on an econometric analysis of developments in the last three decades, which indicates that housing supply has driven net internal migration and that employment adjusts to the regional population in the long run. The regional level is NUTS3, but results are mostly presented on a more aggregated level. Besides a short overview of the relevant historical regional developments and of the model equations, the publication also contains a description of the WLO-scenarios as well as some sensitivity analyses.
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n° 147, June 2007
GAMMA, a Simulation Model for Ageing, Pensions and Public Finances
DRAPER Nick, ARMSTRONG Alex
To answer policy questions that have intergenerational implications, a computable simulation model should obey four conditions: it should incorporate long-term demographic developments, it should include a detailed modelling of the public sector, it should decompose the population into several generations and it should account for the behaviour of the various economic agents. This document describes and illustrates a model that meets all these conditions. It is an applied general equilibrium model that is based on generational accounting principles named GAMMA (Generational Accounting Model with Maximizing Agents).
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n° 146, June 2007
Public and private roles in road infrastructureAn exploration of market failure, public instruments and government failure
SHESTALOVA Victoria, LIJESEN Mark
Starting with a 'greenfield' situation, we discuss reasons for market failure in road infrastructure provision. We show why it may not be optimal from a welfare perspective to leave road provision fully to the market and government intervention in this sector can improve welfare. Government intervention comes in different forms, such as financial intervention (taxation, subsidies), regulation (price, quality, environmental), and public provision of roads or road services. The analysis of the literature regarding government instruments allows us to establish a correspondence between different forms of market failure and instruments. Several case studies of particular road infrastructure projects are included to illustrate the use of government instruments.
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n° 145, May 2007
New generation networks, new generation of regulation? (only in Dutch)
BIJLSMA Michiel
As a consequence of digitalization of telephony and television, the upgrading of current networks to fiber optic networks and the spread of the Internet Protocol (IP), cable- and telephony networks are increasingly able to offer comparable services. If this development is sustained, in time competition will arise between two vertically integrated suppliers with comparable networks. This report contains an analysis of the required regulation of entry, retail prices and interconnection in such a scenario. Competition between vertically integrated service providers who own their networks creates incentives to provide access to these networks for service providers without networks and makes foreclosure less likely. If these incentives are sufficiently strong, access regulation can be reconsidered. From a long-term welfare perspective, it is therefore important that regulation aims at strengthening competition between networks. Symmetric regulation of access can play a role, even if one of the network providers has no considerable market power. Regulation of interconnection will also remain necessary in a converged market to prevent too high interconnection tariffs. Because of the very low costs for IP-based calls, bill-and-keep might be a simple and effective for of regulation.
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n° 144, April 2007
SAFFIER: A multi-purpose model of the Dutch economy for short-term and medium-term analysesKRANENDONK Henk, VERBRUGGEN Johan
Since late 2004, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis has been using the macro-econometric model SAFFIER for its short-term and medium-term analyses. This model resulted from the integration of the quarterly model SAFE and the yearly model JADE. SAFFIER is a multi-purpose model. The quarterly version of the model, used for short-term analyses, only differs from its yearly version, used for medium-term analyses, in the specification of the lag structures. All other (non-technical) specifications are identical in both versions of the model. Simultaneously with the integration of SAFE and JADE, some innovations with respect to the modelling of the wage rate, private consumption, exports, the public sector and the house-price development have been incorporated. In the wage equation, the elasticity of the replacement rate is no longer constant, but is depending on the actual labour-market situation. This publication sketches the outlines of the SAFFIER model, focusing on the main innovations. In order to explain the working of the model, the results from a number of standard shocks are presented.
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n° 143, April 2007
Re-exports: International comparison and consequences for performance indicators (only in Dutch)MELLENS Martin, NOORDMAN Herman, VERBRUGGEN Johan
Since the mid eighties, re-exports in the Netherlands is booming, with the exception of a short interruption in 2001 and 2002. This research shows that a relatively strong growth of re-exports is not just a Dutch phenomenon, but that there is an international trend going on. Re-exported products are at least doubly counted in world trade figures. This international re-exports trend contributes to the fact that world trade volume is growing faster than the volume of world export production. Besides, there are some serious implications for the indicators of countries' exports performances. If one doesn't take account of the implications of the international re-exports trend, the relevant export market growth for Dutch manufactures as well as the loss of market share of Dutch industrialists are overestimated.
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n° 142, March 2007
Do non-profits make a difference? Evaluating non-profit vis-à-vis for-profit organisations in social servicesKONING Pierre, NOAILLY Joelle, VISSER Sabine
This CPB Document provides a framework for the evaluation of non-profit organisations. This framework addresses the question under which conditions, and, if so, in what way non-profits should be stimulated. Essentially, in order to answer these questions, three steps can be followed: (i) identifying potentially relevant market failures that non-profits may aim to diminish; (ii) linking market failures to observed performance indicators for profits and non-profits; and (iii) use these insights to derive policy implications: should non-profits be stimulated? We apply the proposed framework to three sectors that are commonly labelled as 'social services': the care sector, the childcare sector and welfare-to-work services. All these sectors are subject to substantial informational problems regarding the quality of services. When surveying the literature, we find non-profit organisations only to make a difference in some specific cases. So far, there is no strong evidence that can be used as an argument to stimulate non-profit organisations in mixed markets. Moreover, such (targeted) policies may discourage donated labour and private donations, thus rendering them largely ineffective.
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n° 141, March 2007
Will corporate tax consolidation improve efficiency in the EU?VAN DER HORST Albert
Consolidation of the tax base in the European Union is expected to curve compliance costs and reduce profit shifting. A number of proposals for consolidation from the European Commission are simulated with the applied general equilibrium model CORTAX. We show that the benefits from consolidation are offset by two weaknesses in the proposals for a common consolidated tax base. Formula apportionment, which is needed to allocate the consolidated taxable profits across jurisdictions, creates new tax planning possibilities for MNEs and allows them to benefit from existing tax rate differentials in the European Union. In addition, it triggers tax competition as member states may attract foreign investment by reducing their tax rates. The second distortion is an unlevel playing field, which is introduced if only part of the firms participate in the consolidation. The gains from consolidation can be fully grasped if it is obliged for all firms and if it is accompanied by a harmonisation of the tax rate.
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n° 140, February 2007
De effectiviteit van de innovatievoucher 2004 en 2005
CORNET Maarten, VAN DER STEG Marc, VROOMEN Björn
The Dutch innovation voucher aims at stimulating the interaction between small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and public-research institutes. The voucher is a credit note of 7,500 euro which an SME can use to commission a study on innovation opportunities by a public research institute. We estimate the effect of the innovation voucher using telephone-survey data from SMEs that applied for a voucher in 2004 and 2005. The analysis employs the fact that the vouchers have been assigned randomly by means of a lottery. We find some evidence for a positive effect on improvements in production processes, but no evidence for effects on product innovation, product improvements, and process innovation. Thanks to the voucher, more SMEs commission a study to public-research institutes. This effect seems to be once-only: SMEs do not cooperate more often with public institutes in the following year and a half. Our findings should be interpreted with care, because of the possible selective non-response in the survey. For example, half of the SMEs with a 2004 voucher did not respond to the interview. Therefore, effects for the total population may differ.
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