Updated forecasts for 2024 and 2025 and medium-term projections

At the end of August, STATEC delivered an update of its short-term forecasts (2024 and 2025) to the Ministry of Finance, as well as its projections for the following three years. These figures are intended to feed into the process of drawing up the State Budget. The previous medium-term projections were published in February 2023.

Luxembourg is in the process of emerging from the recession it experienced in 2023, with real GDP growth still forecast at +1.5% in 2024. From 2025 onwards, growth is expected to strengthen gradually, approaching 3% by the end of the period. However, as with employment, STATEC considers the medium-term outlook for economic growth to be less favourable than in the previous version. As a result, employment is likely to struggle to exceed 2% growth, and unemployment is likely to remain above 6% until at least 2026. Inflation is expected to fall rapidly, despite a slight rebound in 2025 due to a lower ceiling on energy prices.