Luxembourg’s population projections: towards one million inhabitants by 2070
Luxembourg continues to grow. According to new population projections published by STATEC, the country’s population could approach the one-million mark by 2070. To mark the publication of the European population projections, STATEC has unveiled four scenarios for population growth.
Key points
- Luxembourg’s population could approach one million by 2070, according to STATEC’s projections (944,000 in the low-growth scenario, over one million in the high-growth scenarios) as well as those of Eurostat (962,500).
- Eurostat anticipates a phase of sustained population growth until the middle of the century, followed by a gradual slowdown – a trajectory comparable to STATEC’s low-productivity scenarios.
- STATEC’s projections differ in their economic underpinnings. Whereas Eurostat projects migration flows by extrapolating past trends, STATEC links them directly to the fundamentals of the Luxembourg economy: the more attractive growth and wages are compared to neighbouring countries, the higher the net migration.
- Migration is expected to remain the main driver of Luxembourg’s population growth over the forecast horizon; it has accounted for around 80% of the population increase over the past few decades.
Figure 1: Population trends
Sources: STATEC, Eurostat Note: ‘Observed + Medium-term projections’ corresponds to observed data and to data from STATEC’s projections published on 24 February 2026. Scenarios 1 to 4 are those of STATEC, whilst EUROPOP2025 corresponds to the EUROSTAT projection |
Sustained population growth, but which could slow down
In Luxembourg, economic growth and population growth are closely linked. The STATEC model reflects this reality: net migration is determined by the relative attractiveness of Luxembourg’s income compared to neighbouring countries, which is itself driven by productivity gains. On this basis, four scenarios are presented, ranging from the most pessimistic (scenario 1, low productivity) to the most optimistic (scenario 4, high productivity). By 2070, the population is projected to reach 944,000 in Scenario 1, 966,000 in Scenario 2, 1,022,000 in Scenario 3 and 1,067,000 in Scenario 4. The population currently stands at approximately 691,000 as of 31 December 2025.
Over the period from now until the middle of the century, all projections, whether from STATEC or EUROSTAT, indicate a phase of population growth. The trend diverges from the mid-2050s onwards. In STATEC’s projections, the population continues to grow in the higher productivity scenarios, exceeding one million inhabitants by 2070 (scenarios 3 and 4). In the more pessimistic scenarios (scenarios 1 and 2), the trajectory remains very close to that projected by EUROSTAT. Indeed, Eurostat anticipates near-stagnation in the population from the mid-2050s onwards, with the population reaching 962,500 in 2070 (with a trend almost identical to that of STATEC’s scenario 2).
Figure 2: Change in net migration
Sources: STATEC, Eurostat
Note: ‘Observed + Medium-term projections’ corresponds to observed data and to data from STATEC’s projections published on 24 February 2026. Scenarios 1 to 4 are those of STATEC, whilst EUROPOP2025 corresponds to the EUROSTAT projection
Migration, the main driver of population growth
The differences observed between STATEC’s results and those of Eurostat are mainly explained by the projection of net migration (although slight differences are also observed for fertility and mortality), for which the two institutions follow fundamentally different approaches. EUROSTAT adopts an approach based on past trends: net migration is estimated using the average of flows observed over the last ten years, adjusted towards a long-term value common to all EU countries. This method, which is robust for countries with ‘standard’ demographics, does not capture the close link that exists in Luxembourg between the economic climate and migration flows: it can lead to revisions when recent reference years are unusual (such as during the COVID years or periods of strong growth). STATEC, on the other hand, incorporates net migration into its eco-demographic model: flows of foreign workers reflect the relative attractiveness of Luxembourg’s income levels, which is itself determined by productivity gains relative to neighbouring countries. This approach anchors migration projections in economic fundamentals and makes them less sensitive to one-off shocks, resulting in greater stability in forecasts from one publication to the next. In the STATEC scenarios, net migration is projected to be between 3,300 and 7,500 people in 2070, depending on the scenario selected. The EUROSTAT projection follows an intermediate trajectory: after peaking at around 10,000 people in 2031, the net migration balance would gradually decline to just over 3,000 people in 2070, a level close to STATEC’s low-growth scenario. |
Figure 3: Fertility projection
Sources : STATEC, Eurostat
A slight rise in fertility, but far from the replacement threshold
In terms of fertility, STATEC is slightly more optimistic than Eurostat, as shown in Figure 3. Eurostat initially forecasts a slight decrease in the Total Fertility Rate (TFR), falling from 1.25 in 2024 to 1.21 in 2026, before a gradual recovery. STATEC, for its part, anticipates a gradual increase in the TFR from 2025 onwards, reaching 1.50 children per woman in 2070 (compared with 1.41 for Eurostat). Despite this discrepancy, both institutions agree that Luxembourg would remain below the replacement level (2.1 children per woman) throughout the projection period.
Figure 4: Life expectancy at birth
Sources : STATEC, Eurostat
Towards a life expectancy of nearly 90 years in 2070
Mortality assumptions, on the other hand, are relatively similar, as shown by the trend in life expectancy at birth. In 2070, life expectancy at birth for women is projected to be 90.3 years according to STATEC and 89.9 years according to EUROSTAT. For men, it is projected to be 86.7 years according to STATEC and 86.0 years according to EUROSTAT. These modest differences (barely 0.4 to 0.7 years depending on gender) reflect converging mortality assumptions between the two institutions, both based on a continuation of the trend towards longer life expectancy. STATEC projects a slightly faster increase, resulting in a slightly higher life expectancy in the long term. |
Figure 5 : Age pyramid
Sources : STATEC, Eurostat
An inevitable ageing population, but mitigated by immigration
The age pyramids illustrate a profound structural transformation of the Luxembourg population. In 2025, the structure is relatively balanced, reflecting the migratory inflows of past decades, with a predominance of the working-age groups (25–60 years). By 2070, both projections (STATEC and Eurostat) agree on a marked ageing of the population: the proportion of those aged 65 and over is set to increase significantly, with the average age rising from around 40 today to nearly 46–48 in 2070. This ageing is, however, more pronounced in the EUROSTAT projection, where lower net migration towards the end of the period limits the influx of young workers. STATEC’s high-productivity scenarios (scenarios 3 and 4) maintain a slightly more favourable age structure thanks to sustained immigration.
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